TORONTO (AP) — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won Canada’s federal election on Monday, capping a stunning turnaround in fortunes fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and trade war.

The Liberals are projected to win more of Parliament’s 343 seats than the Conservatives, though it wasn’t clear yet if they would win an outright majority, which would allow them to pass legislation without needing help.

The Liberals looked headed for a crushing defeat until the American president started attacking Canada’s economy and threatening its sovereignty, suggesting it should become the 51st state. Trump’s actions infuriated Canadians and stoked a surge in nationalism that helped the Liberals flip the election narrative and win a fourth-straight term in power.

The opposition Conservative Party’s leader, Pierre Poilievre, hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose.

But Trump attacked, Trudeau resigned and Carney, a two-time central banker, became the Liberal Party’s leader and prime minister.

Trump was even trolling Canada on election day, suggesting on social media that he was in fact on the ballot and repeating that Canada should become the 51st state — an assertion that Canadians find deeply insulting. He also erroneously claimed that the U.S. subsidizes Canada, writing, “It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!”

Poilievre, who has been criticized for not taking a firmer stance against Trump, responded with a post of his own.

“President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box,” he posted hours before polls closed. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

Until Trump won a second term and began threatening Canada’s economy and sovereignty, the Liberals looked headed for defeat. But Trump’s truculence has infuriated many Canadians, leading many to cancel U.S. vacations, refuse to buy American goods and possibly even vote early. A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day.

Trump’s attacks also put Poilievre and the opposition Conservative Party on the defensive and led to a surge in nationalism that helped the Liberals flip the election narrative.

“The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Carney said recently, laying out what he saw as the election’s stakes. “Those aren’t just words. That’s what’s at risk.”

Election day came as the country grappled with the fallout from a deadly weekend attack at a Vancouver street fair that led to the suspension of campaigning for several hours. Police ruled out terrorism and said the suspect is a local man with a history of mental health issues.

Trump became the main issue

Poilievre and his wife walked hand-in-hand to vote in their district in the nation’s capital, Ottawa. “Get out to vote for a change,” he implored voters.

Sisters Laiqa and Mahira Shoaib said they did just that, with Laiqa, a 27-year-old health care worker, voting for the progressive New Democratic Party, and Mahira, a 25-year-old bank worker, backing the Conservatives.

The sisters, who immigrated from Pakistan a decade ago, said the economy has worsened and job opportunities have dried up under Liberal rule.

After the sisters voted at a community center in the Toronto suburb of Mississauga, Mahira Shoaib said she thinks Poilievre is best equipped to improve Canada’s finances.

“He is business-minded, and that’s what we need right now,” she said.

After Trump became the election’s central issue, Poilievre’s similarities to the bombastic American president might have cost him.

Reid Warren, a Toronto resident, said he voted Liberal because Poilievre “sounds like mini-Trump to me.” And he said Trump’s tariffs are a worry.

“Canadians coming together from, you know, all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure,” he said.

“He appeals to the same sense of grievance,” Canadian historian Robert Bothwell said of the Conservative leader. “It’s like Trump standing there saying, ‘I am your retribution.’”

“The Liberals ought to pay him,” Bothwell added, referring to the American president. “Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.”

Foreign policy hadn’t dominated a Canadian election as much since 1988 when, ironically, free trade with the United States was the prevailing issue.

Big challenges await the Liberals

Carney and the Liberals cleared a big hurdle in winning a fourth-straight term, but they have daunting tasks ahead.

In addition to the sweeping U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, Canada has been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis for some time. And more than 75% of its exports go to the U.S., so Trump’s tariffs threat and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada’s production south could severely damage the Canadian economy.

–Reporting by Rob Gillies, Associated Press. AP’s Mike Householder contributed.

President Trump is threatening to raise tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber to 27 percent as soon as this week.

The move could impact everything in the U.S. from lumber needed to build affordable housing to wood chips used to make toilet paper.

Trump says his administration would compensate by harvesting more trees from national forests, which includes several in Michigan.

But some experts say it’s not that simple.

The Michigan Sustainable Forestry Initiative’s Jesse Randall says the issue goes beyond how many trees are available in the state or the nation.

Listen: Trump tariffs on Canada lumber could chop U.S. wood supplies

Jesse Randall: Michigan sits kind of at the forefront of very high-valued timber. And we utilize it in a sustainable manner. I think the material that the president is looking at in terms of tariffs is really going to affect our partners in the Pacific Northwest and down South. I know of one Michigan producer who says they haven’t seen any major uptick because of these proposed tariffs yet.

I think tariffs are a double-edged sword. Our mills and our operators are constantly needing to procure and maintain equipment. So I think that will cost them more money, tariffs or anything that will shut down a supply coming in that is used for construction.

We’re really facing now the start of that spring building period. I think that will add extra pressure to it. And I think you might see, at least initially, some speculative up-buying where people are trying to lock in what they’re going to need for the near term, not knowing what the tariffs will do or if they will be in place for very long.

Some of these larger companies are diversified across the border. I do know that some shipments were held up, they cost a little bit more to get into the country. I believe that’s going to be a blip on the radar and it’ll work itself out.

Quinn Klinefelter, WDET News: Why do you think it’ll be just a blip on the radar?

JR: I think our U.S. mills have already begun to adjust to the possibility. I think they’ve already started to look at their procurement side of the equation and say, “If tariffs do come in and we get raw material from across the border, where will we have to source that from instead? Who are our major players on the procurement side?” I think what the proposed tariff has done is really sped up those conversations inside U.S. producers. “Who are we going to have new contracts with? How flexible are those contracts to ramp up?”

Frankly, right now, I see us having a bigger problem than running out of material. We’re going to run out of Qualified Logging Professionals (QLPs) to harvest the material. Within this country, we have an aging demographic in the forest products industry. Not a lot of folks are going into that profession. It’s a lot like agriculture, it’s getting older and they’re becoming more mechanized. But there’s still a level of retirement that is not being replaced with new logging professionals.

What’s scary to me is if these mills immediately call for more material coming from our woods, which we do have in Michigan, they won’t have people to harvest that wood, they won’t have people to haul that wood. That’s what we’re faced with.

We have 1,000 QLPs. That’s not enough to meet the demand that these mills would have if they ran wide open seven days a week. They don’t have the manpower.

QK: One of the things the Trump administration argues in favor of tariffs is that they will cause production to be based more in the U.S. Are you concerned primarily that there is just not enough qualified professionals here at the moment in the lumber business? Or are there other factors you worry about, if it was going to be mainly a U.S.-based timber industry, as opposed to using lumber from Canada?

JR: The cost of entry into this. The equipment is incredibly expensive. Interest rates have risen to the point where the machinery has gotten out of direct reach for a lot of new people to get into. It’s a lot like agriculture. I would have loved as a young adult to have gotten into either forestry or agriculture. But you need to almost be born into an agricultural family that has an established business to be your own producer. It’s very hard for a new person to break in and pay for this equipment and make go of it.

Now, if there’s increased demand and there’s a lack of QLPs, supply and demand laws tell us that the price per unit goes up. Perhaps that will attract more new people to go out and get the loans to begin to start their own businesses.

But there’s another factor. We’ve also had a lot of natural disasters natiowide. And our Michigan QLPs and our trucking professionals are sought-after talent when natural disasters strike. We have a lot of QLPs and haulers that have been put under contract to go and respond to the storms down South and out in the central U.S.

QK: To get rid of fallen trees and the like?

JR: Correct. We saw a lot of that in North Carolina. And our QLPs had gotten these federal contracts to go out and really help those individual states after hurricanes and tornadoes. That all has to be cleaned up by somebody that knows what they’re doing, that has the right equipment. And those contracts aren’t one or two months. Those contracts are six to nine months. That effectively takes them out of Michigan for the better part of the harvest year. You don’t replace that equipment and that level of knowledge overnight. I can’t take a young person who is fresh out of high school or college and put them on a machine and have them be safe and productive. It takes years to develop those skills. And, right now, we have a loss of talent.

The relationship between Detroit and Windsor is a microcosm of what’s been happening in recent weeks between the U.S. and Canada. President Donald Trump’s constant threat of tariffs and annexation have brought heated rhetoric and international tension.

It’s affecting the lives — and vibes — of Windsorites.

“It is getting tense, and it is getting very stressful on this side of the border, and you can actually feel it,” said Rino Bortolin, a former Windsor City Councilor. He owns Petrella’s, a sandwich shop in the Ford City neighborhood.

Bortolin isn’t alone. WDET approached more than a dozen Windsorites to ask them how they were taking the recent stress in Canada-U.S. relations. People had thoughts — but were often hesitant to have them recorded. But off the record, they expressed a mixture of disbelief and disappointment.

Bortolin says the whole ordeal has been difficult.

“We’ve got season tickets to Detroit City FC soccer [and we are] over there, quite a bit with friends family,” Bortolin said. “So I’m trying to separate the people versus what’s happening at the government level. But it is very difficult.”

DCFC’s home opener was Saturday. But Bortolin says the bad vibes are keeping folks from crossing the border.

“I’ve got four tickets. Kids probably can’t come. It’s been hard to find three people to fill those seats,” Bortolin said. “So people that go regularly for concerts, cultural events, dining, other events where they even know people over in Detroit, even they’re putting a hard stop on on going over and crossing at all.”

And that’s not just anecdotal. Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show crossings dropped last month by 470,000 when compared to February 2024.

The last time crossings were this low was 2020, during the early days of COVID.

That sounds about right to Sarah Dewar, the owner and sommelier at Maiden Lane, a Windsor wine and cocktail bar.  

“I feel after the pandemic, it’s finally been rebounding,” said Dewar. “We’re getting the American tourism again, and it’s really disappointing to think that these positive gains we’ve made will be reversed.”

Dewar knows it can be tough to get people to make the trip.

“I think as Windsorites, living on a border city, we pay attention to what’s going on in Detroit, whereas Detroit doesn’t necessarily pay attention to what’s going on over here,” Dewar said. “U.S., Canada, you could say the same thing.”

In response to American tariffs, some Canadians have focused on using goods made in their country, and calling for a boycott of ones made in the U.S. For a bar owner, that means an embargo on products like American whiskey.  

However, Dewar says it’s difficult given the close ties between countries, industries, and people.

“You know, I can’t get on board with a full-on boycott of all things American,” Dewar said.

She’s worried it might get worse.

“I hate the division that it has the potential to cause between just the average person. You know, we have friends. We’ve created relationships with people over there in the same industry, and we love going to visit them,” Dewar said.

“We love it when they come over here. And I hope, I hope that we can repair it. I don’t think it’s too far gone.”

Still, the situation is seen as disrespectful to an ally and neighbor who has dealt with a lot.  

Member of Parliament Brian Masse is with the New Democratic Party.  He’s represented the Windsor West riding for more than two decades and is running in next month’s federal elections.

“We were the ones going over to Detroit to support the businesses in Greektown and the sports culture and so forth, when people said it was not even safe to visit,” Masse said. “So right now, there’s a sense of fatigue from our citizens because of the insults going on with regards to Trump.”

Masse knows the importance of a healthy Great Lakes ecosystem and has been working on getting the Ojibway Prairie Complex—a stretch of Windsor along the river across from Zug Island—designated a National Urban Park.

“Those things are at risk, and so we’re going to need to see people step up and figure out that it just can’t be taken for granted, the [U.S. / Canada] relationship anymore, because the constant elements coming out of the White House and the confusion is going to cost real jobs, cost real friendships, and it’s going to take away from our quality of life,” Masse says.

Because of that, Masse doesn’t blame Canadians for expressing their frustration with the U.S. via their wallets.  

“The problem that we have here, though, is for people to actually think about getting in their car or going on a trip into the US and potentially face some of this stuff is exhausting, and they have other options.”

Those options are fully on display at Valente Travel next door to Masse’s office on Ouelette Avenue.

Travel agent Melanie Harding says many Canadians are rerouting their big trips.

“We have had some cancelations,” Harding says. “Some people feel strongly about it, where others are still willing to travel.”

But don’t count Harding among those who are discouraged from going to the U.S.

“I’m going to New Orleans,” Harding says. “It’s our anniversary, so I’m not putting that on hold for anyone.”

Windsorite Edward Semenski isn’t phased either. When asked by WDET if he wants Canada to become the 51st U.S. state: “Sure, why not?”

Semenski, who was reading a Bible when approached by WDET, says he appreciates Trump’s Christian values. Still, he doesn’t plan to cross the border anytime soon.

“I don’t think I’m going to be able to go to the U.S.,” Semenski says. “I have a criminal record, even though I used to live in Detroit.”

However, Semenski says he’s holding out hope.

“I’m gonna get a try to get a pardon first before I try going over there.”

For as tight as the two countries have been historically, something feels off. Call it a vibe shift.

Bortolin says the honeymoon is definitely over.

“I think this will be something that causes generational harm and a shift from the relationship,” Bortolin says.

“It’s like your partner cheats on you the one time, and…it can’t go back after that. And it’s like, there’s always something in the back of your mind. And this is one of those things that will always be in the back of our minds.”

A recent pro-Canada demonstration drew hundreds to Detroit’s Hart Plaza and to the base of the giant Canadian flag along the Windsor riverfront. It was a show of support on both sides of the border – and a reminder that Americans and Canadians can still be good neighbors… even when the U.S government isn’t.